Predictions

Saltire Signal predictions will use Brier score in public because it is simple enough to audit and sharp enough to punish overconfident misses. Each forecast will name the claim, confidence, range, deadline and the evidence that would prove it wrong.

The awkward part is the point. A public miss is more useful than a private boast, so resolved predictions will stay visible with the outcome attached.

62%

chance the ferry disruption is materially eased by Friday

Prediction: CalMac publishes a reduced but workable Friday service on the affected route (confidence: 62%, band: medium, horizon: 4 days).

Scorecard mockup

We were wrong on: ministerial statement timing

Bad call. Logged, corrected, and left where you can see it. Forecast said Tuesday; statement landed Thursday after committee scheduling shifted.